Ewan's Blog

Hogwash

Wednesday 16 Oct 2019

I read a lot of articles, research and comments about the residential property market. Like so many things in life it can be fascinating to see how different people interpret what appears to be ostensibly the exact same information. Of course everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I’m always surprised how often I consider a lot of it to be a load of hogwash…

I recognise there are many ways to interpret the current residential market, but I will have to disagree with anyone who presents that the optimum window for listing or selling a property is rapidly closing. I just don’t believe that to be the case. I see that now and over the longer term into next year there will remain good opportunity to secure good value for new listings.

This week we saw statistics come in from Cooley Auctions which revealed very interesting numbers that tell a very interesting story.

The Cooley Index show auction volumes are still down on the same time last year. At the same time the auction clearance rate of 72%, the average price achieved, the total value of properties sold under the hammer, the average number of bidders registering and the fact that 71% of properties were sold over reserve are all dramatically above the numbers achieved last year.

Then the Core Logic team has come out with analysis showing listing numbers have risen 44% since July this year but they are still well down on last year and new listings coming online are tracking at 15% below the average over a 13 year period.

They are the facts. How you interpret them can depend on what you want to see. 

I know many people expect that as a real estate professional I will always be looking to talk up positive sentiment in the market and the increased activity evident from potential buyers is having a strong influence on improving property values.

But I will always tell it like I see it and right now I understand why potential vendors are reluctant to list even though there is a wealth of statistics illustrating the opportunity to secure a successful sale and I don’t see any value in trying to insight potential vendors to rush or panic.

I have spoken before about the tangible level of financial wariness and economic uncertainty our team are meeting when they talk to property owners. They are happy to see the evidence of value growth but surrounded by so much uncertainty many are choosing to sit on that growth rather than capitalise on it right now.

Of course stronger listing numbers would be welcomed by our team of agents who are working hard to find the right property for their database of keen purchasers. We have huge buyer and investor interest across all our offices. But don’t feel pressured. Yes there is strong demand that will deliver great prices now but I believe the market will continue to deliver ‘steady as she goes’ returns so it is hogwash to think you have to rush.

My advice is to seek advice. Talk to our team to get the facts and work through the numbers so you can make a decision that is right for you.