Ewan's Blog

It’s Inevitable…or is it?

Wednesday 15 Apr 2015

There is a sense of inevitability in the air. An expectation the market cannot possibly sustain the current record levels but I think if most commentators were honest they would admit to saying that exact same thing every month for the last six months…at least.  So is it really inevitable that the market will turn, and if so, when?

That’s the million dollar question. 

This time last year I spoke about how April is a unique month in the property calendar, and whilst I have written recently about how we are seeing a break in many of the traditional expectations around real estate, I do anticipate April 2015 will deliver its usual confusing mix of outcomes.

April is always tricky.

After a bumper March and lead up to Easter the signs point to continuing high demand and great returns, but in April it does tend to go very quiet. Very quickly.  So inevitably people start to get nervous and I can understand that.  It makes me a little nervous too, but a quiet April doesn’t automatically mean the market is bust.

And I don’t think it is.  Sure it has gone quiet but as I’ve said before, April is tough for most businesses because of Easter and ANZAC Day and school holidays all oddly spaced out over a few weeks. There is no consistency.

I anticipate activity will continue to be strong as we lead in to Winter. There simply remains too much demand out there that has yet to be satisfied.  People are still looking for property across all levels of the price spectrum and I can’t foresee that changing given rates look set to stay low. 

I acknowledge the time will come when good price levels are secured that are not necessarily setting new records.  And I acknowledge that time may well be just around the corner but it doesn’t mean the market is bust. 

The only thing that is truly inevitable is that commentators will continue to disagree on what is happening, and what is going to happen, to the property market.  At Morton. I think we’ll just knuckle down and get on with it.